Market Outlook - Q4, 2026
Digital assets rallied through a Fed hike and a failed CLARITY Act vote. Our Q4 outlook argues that usage earns a return only where it reaches tokenholders, and tests that view across protocol fees, tokenized equities, perpetuals and stablecoins.
Mark Pilipczuk
2026 Mid-Year Market Outlook
Iran risk, regulatory policy, Bitcoin rebalancing, tokenization, and protocol revenue are reshaping the outlook. Growth is narrowing, but regulatory progress and productive on-chain activity create offsets. Dispersion, not broad beta, should define the next year.
Gabriel Selby
Conviction in the Crossfire: Geopolitical Risk, Regulatory Breakthroughs, and the Bitcoin Catch-Up Trade
The Iran conflict has reshaped the macro landscape, stalling the Fed's easing cycle and neutralizing the fiscal impulse. Yet the regulatory environment has never been more constructive, and Bitcoin's catch-up trade with gold has deepened to its most attractive entry point in over two years.
Gabriel Selby
Risk-On Reloaded: Monetary Easing, Catch-up Trades, and the Tokenization Buildout
Crypto markets are entering a transformative phase in 2026, where regulatory clarity and monetary easing outweigh macro uncertainty. We expect a dovish Fed pivot counter to consensus, fostering lower real yields. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act and broader adoption should drive our secular themes.
Gabriel Selby
Building Bitcoin Capital Market Assumptions
Bitcoin’s institutional adoption demands robust, pragmatic CMA frameworks that integrate quantitative modeling, macro analysis, and valuation to guide strategic and tactical allocations across market cycles and investment horizons.
Gabriel Selby
Rate Cuts & Regulatory Clarity: From Red Tape to Greenlights
Crypto markets are entering a phase where regulatory clarity and monetary easing outweigh macro headwinds. Stablecoin adoption, expanding ETF pipelines, and Fed rate cuts are set to create tailwinds for digital assets.
Gabriel Selby
Alpha in the Aftermath: Moving Beyond the 60/40
Regulatory clarity is poised to support digital assets despite macro headwinds. The GENIUS Act greenlights USD stablecoins, while the SEC moves to fast-track multi-token spot ETFs. Corporate treasuries may add ETH and SOL, as tokenized equities lift block demand and staking yields.
Gabriel Selby
Market Outlook 2025
Digital assets are positioned for growth in 2025, driven by macro trends, tech innovation, and regulatory clarity. Investment advisor demand should accelerate ETF adoption, while blockchain scaling advances fuel DeFi, stablecoins, and asset tokenization in traditional markets.
Gabriel Selby
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