Jul 22, 2025
CFB Talks Digital Assets Episode 47: Q3 2025 Outlook Special - 'Alpha in the Aftermath: Moving Beyond the 60/40'
We're just past the half way mark of one of the most geopolitically and politically volatile years for decades - yet key digital assets are continuing to set new highs.
On the face of it, it's a classic set-up for a significant pullback, maybe exacerbated by simmering inflation and questionable growth, combined with rising skepticism on earnings, amid lofty valuations.
Still, considering Bitcoin's historical asymmetric risk-adjusted return profile, the crypto market outlook's almost certainly going to be more nuanced.
That makes the CF Benchmarks Q3 2025 outlook report an essential guide for what to watch in the current quarter, and how to play it.
Join Head of Research, Gabe Selby, CFA, and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, as they talk through their report: 'Alpha in the Aftermath: Moving Beyond the 60/40', on the latest episode of CFB Talks Digital Assets!
A few of the highlights:
- The Fed's 'impossible' balancing act amid tariff uncertainty and the risk of cutting too late - not to mention prospects of a 'Shadow Fed Chair'
- How cracks are showing in lengthening bond auction 'tails', hinting that vigilantes are again waiting in the wings
- Bitcoin's place, alongside real estate, gold, and other assets, with the resumption of dollar debasement on the horizon
- BTC's unique edge amid the SAB121 repeal, which paves the way for mass collateralization
- How multi-asset portfolios are in focus ahead of the SEC's anticipated universal listing procedures for spot crypto ETFs - which will enable institutional allocation in size
- As tokenization switches from science fiction to science fact, with new instruments like Kraken 's xStocks, how the era of smart contract platforms has now truly begun
For informed insights on these points and more, from institutional practitioners across all asset classes, listen in now!
Listen on Spotify
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on YouTube
Listen on Amazon Music
Catch all episodes here
Subscribe for updates!
The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell any of the underlying instruments cited including but not limited to cryptoassets, financial instruments or any instruments that reference any index provided by CF Benchmarks Ltd. This communication is not intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. Please contact your financial adviser or professional before making an investment decision.
Note: Some of the underlying instruments cited within this material may be restricted to certain customer categories in certain jurisdictions.
Weekly Index Highlights, March 23, 2026
Crypto’s retreat deepened into the end of last week, with Bitcoin -6.5% and ETH -9%. DeFi and Culture tokens were also particularly pressured. Just as concerning, APT's staking reward rate halved, realized BTC volatility overshot implied, and Bitcoin funding kinked sharply at the front end.
CF Benchmarks
Factor Friday - March 20, 2025
The market's strongest four-week rally of 2026 saw liquidity top weekly factor rankings for the first time, signaling broadening risk appetite beyond value and growth. Downside beta's lead is eroding fast. The rotation is encouraging, but with YTD losses at -28.4%, a full risk-on pivot is premature.
Mark Pilipczuk
The M2-Bitcoin Relationship: What the Data Actually Shows
Global M2 has grown over 12% in the past year while Bitcoin has declined roughly 12%. We analyzed two decades of cross-asset data to determine whether this is a temporary dislocation or a structural regime change in how Bitcoin responds to monetary expansion.
Gabriel Selby