CF Benchmarks
CF benchmarks logo

Apr 14, 2025

CFB Talks Digital Assets Episode 42: Macro Tension and Crypto Momentum: Inside the Q2 Market Outlook


In this episode, we break down our research team's Market Outlook: Q2 2025 report – “The New Equilibrium: Unraveling Economic Tension & Thematic Tailwinds.”

From stubborn inflation and global growth uncertainty, to proactive regulatory shifts and strengthening structural themes, the quarter ahead is set to be defined by both tension and opportunity.

We explore how digital asset markets are being shaped by overlapping forces: macroeconomic crosscurrents, legislative momentum, and evolving investor preferences.

Key highlights

  • The shift in U.S. trade policy and what it means for the path of monetary policy
  • Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and what it means for the network going forward
  • Why we expect the value factor to outperform, and what CFB's factor model tells us about last quarter's move
  • Bitcoin’s correlation with global M2 and the potential for a liquidity-driven move in Q2

If you’re looking to make sense of an investment landscape at a critical inflection point—this is your guide to the themes that matter.

Catch the show by clicking a link below, or wherever you get your podcasts!

Spotify

Apple Podcasts

YouTube Audio

Amazon Music

Catch all episodes here

Subscribe for updates!


The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell any of the underlying instruments cited including but not limited to cryptoassets, financial instruments or any instruments that reference any index provided by CF Benchmarks Ltd. This communication is not intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. Please contact your financial adviser or professional before making an investment decision.


Note: Some of the underlying instruments cited within this material may be restricted to certain customer categories in certain jurisdictions.


Factor Friday - March 20, 2025

The market's strongest four-week rally of 2026 saw liquidity top weekly factor rankings for the first time, signaling broadening risk appetite beyond value and growth. Downside beta's lead is eroding fast. The rotation is encouraging, but with YTD losses at -28.4%, a full risk-on pivot is premature.

Mark Pilipczuk
Mark Pilipczuk

Mark Pilipczuk

9 mins read
The M2-Bitcoin Relationship: What the Data Actually Shows

Global M2 has grown over 12% in the past year while Bitcoin has declined roughly 12%. We analyzed two decades of cross-asset data to determine whether this is a temporary dislocation or a structural regime change in how Bitcoin responds to monetary expansion.

Gabriel Selby
Gabriel Selby

Gabriel Selby

7 mins read
Hashi Brings Bitcoin-Backed Credit to Sui, Priced by CF Benchmarks

Hashi will unlock institutional Bitcoin participation at scale, bringing core financial services like credit origination and lending to a transparent, compliant environment on Sui using both Bitcoin and stablecoins as collateral.

Ken Odeluga
Ken Odeluga

Ken Odeluga

3 mins read